New Zealand in political limbo after knife-edge election

By Todd Symons, CNN

(CNN) — New Zealand voters face weeks of political limbo after a knife-edge election left the country’s conservative coalition government at risk of losing its majority following just a single term in office.

Saturday’s preliminary results show Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led coalition with a paper-thin majority. But the margin is so tight, a small variance in the final tally could yet leave the opposition left-wing bloc with a chance to form a government.

Luxon told supporters gathered in Auckland that while it looked like his party had a pathway to form the next government, the race remained “too close to call.”

He said the country would need to wait until the Electoral Commission delivered the final official results on November 27 for certainty. Coalition negotiations could then drag on for weeks before a government is formed.

The first-term government’s struggle to secure an emphatic victory signifies the level of public discontent over high gas prices and other living costs, stubbornly high unemployment rates and healthcare.

In an unusual dynamic, swing voters abandoned the traditionally dominant players – center-right National and the center-left Labour party – opting instead to support minor parties across the political spectrum.

Preliminary numbers show the right-wing coalition grouping has 67 seats in an expanded 131-seat parliament, but nearly 400,000 votes cast under special circumstances – including those of New Zealanders who live overseas – have yet to be counted.

Should the coalition eventually fall short of a majority, Luxon would likely need to turn to the progressive centrist Opportunity party for support.

The party, which positions itself as both business-and climate-friendly, made history on Saturday, projected to become the first total outsider party to enter the country’s parliament in three decades.

Prior to the election, Luxon had ruled out working with the party led by millennial political newcomer Qiulae Wong. But he stuck a more conciliatory tone on Sunday morning.

“I actually do want to build a relationship with her as the leader and also with her party, and try and find common ground,” he said, congratulating the party for its achievement.

The opposition grouping of Labour, the leftist Greens and indigenous party Te Pati Māori is projected to have 57 seats. But the bloc could have a path to power if it picked up some additional seats in the final count, and if it secured the support of Opportunity.

Labour Leader Chris Hipkins made light of Saturday’s inconclusive results as he addressed supporters in Wellington, saying: “Tonight, New Zealand has spoken. It may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you’ve said.”

Hipkins, who served briefly as prime minister in 2023, did not concede, telling the crowd that “every vote matters. And every vote must be counted.”

Labour received the highest share of the popular vote under the country’s mixed-member proportional voting system by a tiny margin, but a stronger performance in individual electorates has delivered National more seats in parliament.

Struggle for reelection

The National-led coalition – the country’s most right-wing in a generation – took power in 2023, capitalizing on an electorate looking for change in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Its ability to deliver on a pledge to get the country “back on track” economically has been hamstrung by the global uncertainty created by US President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive and the soaring fuel prices that have resulted from the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Luxon urged voters to “stick with the plan.” But his party emerges a diminished force, crashing to just 29.2% of the popular vote, down from 38.1% in 2023, according to the preliminary count.

Its coalition partners, the right-wing-libertarian ACT party and the nationalist New Zealand First Party, increased their vote share to 10.9% and 9.8% respectively, putting them both in a stronger position to dictate terms in pending coalition talks.

The stronger-than-expected result for New Zealand First and ACT, and National’s weakened position, raises the prospect of the coalition moving further to the right in a second term and further embracing culture-war policies.

On the campaign trail the ACT vowed to end affirmative action schemes at the country’s medical schools, while New Zealand First promised sweeping immigration changes and voiced support for a review of the ban on gay conversion therapy.

Luxon, would also have a complex job filling key cabinet posts in a second term, with a raft of senior lawmakers from his National party, including finance minister Nicola Willis and parliament’s speaker Gerry Brownlee, losing their seats.

Voters turn to minor parties

The two parties that have dominated Wellington politics for nearly a century fell out of favor with swing voters, with National and Labour each attracting just 29% of the popular vote. Those votes instead went to minor parties entrenched further to the right and the left, as well as Opportunity in the center.

Wong, 38, a former sustainable business consultant who applied for the party’s leadership by responding to a job advertisement a year ago, told supporters they had voted “to change New Zealand politics for good.”

The party, which secured nearly 6% of the vote, becomes the first party not involving established political figures to win enough support to enter parliament since the country moved to a mixed-member proportional voting system in the mid-1990s.

Depending on the final vote tally, Opportunity could still find itself in the kingmaker position – with both the right and the left groupings vying for its support.

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This article has been updated with additional information.